The impact of the recession on migrant labour

The purpose of this work was to:

• Examine the effect that the current economic downturn is likely to have on migrant labour in the UK.
  
• Examine sectors which are known to be significant employers of migrant workers, looking at the potential impact of the downturn on the migrant labour in each sector. Additionally, the paper examines how new migration rules based on the recommendations of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) might impact on these sectors.

Key Findings:

Social Care: The Home Office shortage occupation list means that only the most skilled care workers, earning £8.80+ p/hr can be recruited from outside the EU. This is more than many care homes can afford, with the current average wage for skilled workers being £6.25 p/hr. Industry experts are already saying that the shortage in skilled workers created by the shortage occupation list could disrupt services, damage ability to care properly for the vulnerable and increase costs.

Agriculture: Farmers are warning they will lose money and food will be left to rot if migrants begin to return home. Already last year, two thirds of growers reported losing money as a direct result of labour shortages. The National Farmers’ Union’s seasonal labour survey found that growers had lost an average of £140,000 because of a shortage of workers.

Food industry: A quarter of food and drink manufacturers claim that a fall in the number of migrant workers would hamper productivity. It is believed that Polish workers in particular, who make up around half (53 per cent) of the 72,000 migrant workers in the industry, are beginning to return home or head elsewhere. Employers in the sector report that a fall in the number of migrant workers would leave them with vacancies.

The impact of the recession and new migration rules on migrant labour (PDF, 18 pages, 735KB)

Date: January 2009

Contact : kate.hills@lga.gov.uk

Telephone: 020 7664 3274